Trump is trying to take back tech manufacturing: What will happen to microchips?

Every week, MJV Craft brings together competing AI systems to debate the biggest stories in politics, business, and culture. Drawing on public data, historical precedent, and distinct ideological frameworks, each edition presents a structured clash of perspectives—designed to challenge assumptions, surface contradictions, and illuminate the stakes. This is not consensus-driven commentary. It’s a curated argument for an unstable world.

What’s happening today?

Today, we’re diving into the intense world of microchip manufacturing, where President Trump’s tariff-driven strategy aims to wrench production back to the U.S. amid fierce competition with Asia’s chip-making giants.

Earlier this month, Trump levied a hefty threat of 100% tariffs on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) if the firm did not expand its U.S. fabrication operations.

Earlier this week, TSMC broke ground on its third American fabrication plant, and in turn, the company’s stock outpaced its American contemporaries – like Intel – through a “Trump boost.” Trump claims that his tariffs, in lieu of the incentives enacted under Biden, forced the company to invest in American manufacturing.

“And now you’re seeing the power of Donald Trump’s presidency, because TSMC, the greatest manufacturer of chips in the world, is coming to America with $100 billion investment. And, of course, that is backed by the fact that they can come here because they can avoid paying tariffs.”
– Commerce Secretary Lutnick, March 3

Now, Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs on Taiwan are set at 32% and tentatively begin in July. TSMC’s products seem to be exempt from Trump’s brute force thus far, in contrast to earlier this month.

Taiwanese Mainland Council Affairs Minister Chiu Chui-cheng bragged about America-Taiwan relations, saying the two countries are “unprecedentedly” close in an exclusive interview with Aljazeera. However, unease remains as U.S.-Taiwan supply chains are at the mercy of tariffs.

AI models will emulate two experts: Chris Miller, author of “Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology,” and Lisa Su, CEO of AMD, and make their predictions about what will come next.

ChatGPT → SOURCE: YAHOO FINANCE | CHAT WITH AI LISA

Q: Hi there, Lisa Su ChatGPT! The Trump administration has hinted at placing tariffs on Taiwanese microchip imports to the United States. While no formal negotiations have started regarding the specific figures on these tariffs, your company, AMD, has a significant investment with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), America’s most prominent supplier of computer microchips. 

As you told Yahoo Finance on April 2, “I do think that there could be some short-term impacts, as you think about what happens in the overall tariff situation.” 

“I think it’s too early to say what the longer term impacts are … And, the key is to be agile, to have a very broad supply chain, and we are going to work very hard at bringing back the supply chain back to the U.S. as well.”

What do you think the future of semiconductor, microchip manufacturing in the United States would entail? What are your predictions as Trump waxes and wanes on implementing tariffs specifically designed to impact key manufacturing hubs like Taiwan?

A: Thanks for the question. The semiconductor industry is inherently global, and Taiwan plays a central role. At AMD, we deeply value our partnership with TSMC—it’s foundational to our innovation roadmap. That said, we’ve long recognized the importance of diversification. As geopolitical dynamics shift, particularly with potential tariffs on Taiwanese microchips, we’re staying focused on agility.

We support policies that strengthen U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing. We’re already working with our ecosystem partners and federal initiatives like the CHIPS Act to expand domestic capacity. Still, building a resilient supply chain takes time—this isn’t just about fabs, but talent, R&D, and logistics.

If tariffs materialize, there will be near-term disruptions. But long-term, I believe it accelerates investment in a hybrid model: maintaining strong Asian partnerships while building robust U.S. infrastructure. The future isn’t about cutting ties—it’s about strategic redundancy. Our job is to innovate through uncertainty.

ChatGPT → SOURCE: BBC | CHAT WITH AI CHRIS

Q: Hi there, Chris Miller ChatGPT! The Trump administration has hinted at placing tariffs on Taiwanese microchip imports to the United States. While no formal negotiations have started regarding the specific figures on these tariffs, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) remains a critical player, as you’ve noted, with far greater manufacturing capacity than the U.S. As you told the BBC on April 15, "The question of scale depends on how much investment is made in the US versus Taiwan," and "Taiwan has far more capacity." What do you think the future of semiconductor and microchip manufacturing in the United States would entail? What are your predictions as Trump waxes and wanes on implementing tariffs specifically designed to impact key manufacturing hubs like Taiwan?

A: The future of semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. hinges on two factors: sustained federal investment and private sector follow-through. The CHIPS Act laid important groundwork, but scale remains the challenge. As I told the BBC, Taiwan's lead isn't just technological—it's industrial. TSMC has a massive, mature ecosystem that can’t be easily replicated. Tariffs on Taiwanese chips might incentivize U.S. production, but they also risk disrupting the global supply chain in the short term, driving up costs and delaying innovation.

If the Trump administration proceeds with tariffs, we may see accelerated reshoring by U.S. firms—but only if subsidies and permitting align. Otherwise, firms will absorb costs or pivot to other Asian suppliers. Real autonomy won’t come from tariffs alone, but from building a vertically integrated, capital-intensive ecosystem over the next decade. That takes more than rhetoric—it takes strategy, coordination, and patience.

Grok → SOURCE: YAHOO FINANCE | CHAT WITH AI LISA 

Q: Hi there, Lisa Su Grok! The Trump administration has hinted at placing tariffs on Taiwanese microchip imports to the United States. While no formal negotiations have started regarding the specific figures on these tariffs, your company, AMD, has a significant investment with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), America’s most prominent supplier of computer microchips. 

As you told Yahoo Finance on April 2, “I do think that there could be some short-term impacts, as you think about what happens in the overall tariff situation.” 

“I think it’s too early to say what the longer term impacts are … And, the key is to be agile, to have a very broad supply chain, and we are going to work very hard at bringing back the supply chain back to the U.S. as well.”

What do you think the future of semiconductor, microchip manufacturing in the United States would entail? What are your predictions as Trump waxes and wanes on implementing tariffs specifically designed to impact key manufacturing hubs like Taiwan?

A: The future of U.S. semiconductor manufacturing hinges on strategic agility and robust investment in domestic capacity. At AMD, we’re committed to diversifying our supply chain while strengthening partnerships like TSMC’s. Potential tariffs on Taiwanese chips could drive short-term cost adjustments, but long-term impacts depend on policy clarity and global market dynamics. I’m optimistic about U.S. innovation—government incentives and private sector collaboration are accelerating fab construction here. By 2030, I expect the U.S. to significantly reduce reliance on foreign chips, with AMD leading in cutting-edge design. Trump’s tariff stance may fluctuate, but our focus remains: leveraging a flexible, broad supply chain to mitigate risks. We’re working closely with stakeholders to bring manufacturing back home, ensuring resilience and competitiveness regardless of policy shifts. Agility is key.

Grok → SOURCE: BBC | CHAT WITH AI CHRIS

Q: Hi there, Chris Grok! The Trump administration has hinted at placing tariffs on Taiwanese microchip imports to the United States. While no formal negotiations have started regarding the specific figures on these tariffs, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) remains a critical player, as you’ve noted, with far greater manufacturing capacity than the U.S. As you told the BBC on April 15, "The question of scale depends on how much investment is made in the US versus Taiwan," and "Taiwan has far more capacity." What do you think the future of semiconductor and microchip manufacturing in the United States would entail? What are your predictions as Trump waxes and wanes on implementing tariffs specifically designed to impact key manufacturing hubs like Taiwan?

A: The future of U.S. semiconductor manufacturing hinges on sustained investment and policy clarity. TSMC’s $100 billion commitment to Arizona fabs is a start, but Taiwan’s capacity still dwarfs U.S. output. Scaling domestic production requires long-term subsidies, skilled labor, and supply chain integration—challenges the U.S. won’t solve quickly. Trump’s tariff threats on Taiwanese chips, wavering between 25% and 100%, risk backfiring. They could raise costs for U.S. tech firms, disrupt supply chains, and push TSMC to other hubs like Japan or Germany, not the U.S. Tariffs might pressure Taiwan but won’t magically onshore advanced manufacturing, given high U.S. labor costs and infrastructure gaps. My prediction: if Trump imposes steep tariffs, expect short-term price spikes and strained U.S.-Taiwan ties, with limited manufacturing gains. Consistent incentives, like the CHIPS Act, are more effective than erratic tariff threats. The U.S. could reach 20-30% of global advanced chip capacity by 2035 with stable policy, but Taiwan will remain dominant absent a seismic shift.

Claude → SOURCE: YAHOO FINANCE | CHAT WITH CLAUDE

Q: How does Lisa Su, CEO of AMD, view the potential impact of the Trump administration's proposed tariffs on Taiwanese microchip imports, particularly in relation to AMD's significant partnership with TSMC, a major supplier of computer microchips to the U.S.? Given her comments to Yahoo Finance on April 2, where she noted possible short-term effects of tariffs and emphasized the need for an agile, broad supply chain while working to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., what might she speculate about the future of semiconductor and microchip manufacturing in the United States? Additionally, how might she predict the outcomes as the Trump administration fluctuates on implementing tariffs targeting key manufacturing hubs like Taiwan?

A: As Lisa Su, I view the proposed Trump tariffs with careful consideration of our global supply chain dynamics. While there could be short-term challenges, AMD's strategy has always been maintaining an agile, geographically diverse manufacturing footprint.

Our partnership with TSMC remains crucial, but we're simultaneously investing in U.S. manufacturing capabilities. The CHIPS Act has been instrumental in accelerating domestic semiconductor production, though building a robust ecosystem takes time.=

The potential tariffs represent both challenge and opportunity. Short-term, they could impact costs and product availability. Long-term, they might catalyze faster development of U.S. semiconductor infrastructure.

AMD remains adaptable to policy fluctuations. We're working closely with government officials to emphasize the semiconductor industry's strategic importance to national security and economic competitiveness.

The future of U.S. semiconductor manufacturing looks promising, but realistic timelines are essential. We need sustained investment and policy support regardless of administration changes. Our approach balances maintaining excellence through global partnerships while contributing to domestic manufacturing capabilities.

Claude → SOURCE: BBC | CHAT WITH CLAUDE

Q: In light of the Trump administration's hints at imposing tariffs on Taiwanese microchip imports to the United States, how does Chris Miller, a noted expert on semiconductor geopolitics, assess the potential implications for the global semiconductor industry, particularly given Taiwan's significant manufacturing capacity compared to the U.S.? Referencing his previous comments, the BBC reported on April 15 that Miller believes, "The question of scale depends on how much investment is made in the US versus Taiwan," and also noted that Miller emphasized "Taiwan has far more capacity," what might he speculate about the future balance of microchip manufacturing between the U.S. and Taiwan? How does he foresee domestic manufacturing evolving in major economies like the United States as tariffs potentially disrupt supply chains from key hubs like Taiwan?

A: Given tariff threats on Taiwanese chips, I'd emphasize this represents a significant escalation in semiconductor geopolitics. The manufacturing imbalance remains stark - TSMC alone produces roughly 90% of advanced chips while U.S. capacity is limited despite CHIPS Act funding.

Tariffs would likely accelerate reshoring efforts, but we're facing fundamental constraints. The U.S. lacks Taiwan's semiconductor ecosystem density and specialized workforce. Even with billions flowing to Arizona and Texas fabs, achieving manufacturing parity would take a decade or more.

For global markets, expect painful adjustments. Disrupting established supply chains would increase costs substantially across the electronics ecosystem. The migration of manufacturing capacity is neither cheap nor quick.

China will be watching closely. Beijing could interpret U.S.-Taiwan semiconductor friction as an opening for their own industry advancement or potential leverage over Taiwan.

The critical question remains whether political timelines align with manufacturing realities. Building semiconductor capacity isn't like constructing conventional factories - it requires specialized knowledge that can't simply be imported overnight.

Gemini → SOURCE: YAHOO FINANCE | CHAT WITH GEMINI

Q: How does Lisa Su, CEO of AMD, view the potential impact of the Trump administration's proposed tariffs on Taiwanese microchip imports, particularly in relation to AMD's significant partnership with TSMC, a major supplier of computer microchips to the U.S.? Given her comments to Yahoo Finance on April 2, where she noted possible short-term effects of tariffs and emphasized the need for an agile, broad supply chain while working to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., what might she speculate about the future of semiconductor and microchip manufacturing in the United States? Additionally, how might she predict the outcomes as the Trump administration fluctuates on implementing tariffs targeting key manufacturing hubs like Taiwan?

A: While the specifics of potential tariff impacts are still being evaluated, as I mentioned to Yahoo Finance, we anticipate possible short-term effects that necessitate a nimble approach to our supply chain. Our strong partnership with TSMC remains crucial, and we are actively working to ensure a broad and agile network.

Looking ahead, the long-term vision includes strengthening U.S. semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. The industry is at a pivotal point, and initiatives to bring more advanced manufacturing to the United States are vital for resilience and innovation.

Fluctuations in tariff policies targeting key regions like Taiwan create uncertainty. However, our focus remains on navigating these dynamics by maintaining close collaborations with our partners, including TSMC, and strategically investing in building a more geographically diverse and secure supply chain, including in the U.S., as evidenced by TSMC's Arizona facility where AMD will also produce chips.

Gemini → SOURCE: BBC | CHAT WITH GEMINI 

Q: In light of the Trump administration's hints at imposing tariffs on Taiwanese microchip imports to the United States, how does Chris Miller, a noted expert on semiconductor geopolitics, assess the potential implications for the global semiconductor industry, particularly given Taiwan's significant manufacturing capacity compared to the U.S.? Referencing his comments to the BBC on April 15, where he stated, "The question of scale depends on how much investment is made in the US versus Taiwan," and noted that "Taiwan has far more capacity," what might he speculate about the future balance of microchip manufacturing between the U.S. and Taiwan? How does he foresee domestic manufacturing evolving in major economies like the United States as tariffs potentially disrupt supply chains from key hubs like Taiwan?

A: Alright, let's break this down, channeling my inner Chris Miller.

Here's my assessment:

• Taiwan's Dominance:

  • As I've emphasized, Taiwan, particularly through TSMC, holds a commanding lead in advanced semiconductor manufacturing.¹ This isn't just about capacity; it's about a highly specialized ecosystem built over decades.

  • "Taiwan has far more capacity" as i have said, and that capacity is very hard to replicate quickly.

• Tariff Implications:

  • Tariffs would undeniably disrupt existing supply chains, raising costs for U.S. companies reliant on Taiwanese chips.² This could trigger a ripple effect throughout the electronics industry.

  • The question of scale, that I have spoken about, is very important here. How much investment the U.S. makes, verses the current capacity that Taiwan has, is what will determine the future balance.

• U.S. Manufacturing:

  • While U.S. efforts to boost domestic manufacturing are underway, it's a long-term endeavor. Building fabrication plants ("fabs") takes years, and replicating Taiwan's expertise is a complex challenge.

  • The CHIPS act, is a good start, but there is still a long way to go.

• Future Balance:

  • I foresee a gradual diversification of semiconductor manufacturing, rather than a complete shift. The U.S. will increase its domestic production, especially for critical applications, but Taiwan will remain a vital player.

  • It is likely that we will see a greater amount of partnership between the U.S. and Taiwan based companies, to try to create a more resilient supply chain.

  • The evolution of domestic manufacturing in major economies like the U.S. will be heavily influenced by how effectively they can address the cost and complexity of chip production. Tariffs will act as a large catalyst for this evolution.

In essence, tariffs will accelerate the push for supply chain diversification, but the semiconductor landscape will remain complex and interconnected.

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—The MJV Craft Team